Forward-looking performance and forecast view, sourced from the Amazon Proforma. Aligned with the FoxFlame June 2026 Monthly Report. Prepared for ArchWorks Capital and the FoxFlame brand team.
June closed at $77,898, the fifth consecutive growth month and the tightest plan miss since April at 8.7% under expectation, with margin running 8 points ahead of plan. Demand is compounding into the forecast rather than lagging it: the July line assumes full stock on the four thin-cover SKUs, which is exactly what the August wave in transit is for.
The Q3 plan steps to $276K at a 15.9% expected margin. Given actual margins have beaten plan in all of the last seven months, the profit range above is conservative at the low end; the operational risk to the top line is receive timing, not demand.
| Month | Expected Sales | Actual Sales | Variance | Expected Margin | Actual Margin | Margin Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | $51,179 | $41,325 | ▼ 19.3% | 5.17% | 9.89% | ▲ 91.3% |
| January 2026 | $52,310 | $16,792 | ▼ 67.9% | 4.77% | 8.13% | ▲ 70.4% |
| February 2026 | $20,655 | $16,111 | ▼ 22.0% | 7.84% | 14.21% | ▲ 81.3% |
| March 2026 | $18,420 | $24,539 | ▲ 33.2% | 10.05% | 14.50% | ▲ 44.3% |
| April 2026 | $45,830 | $42,495 | ▼ 7.3% | 2.00% | 16.28% | ▲ 714.0% |
| May 2026 | $86,268 | $68,136 | ▼ 21.0% | 2.06% | 19.90% | ▲ 866.2% |
| June 2026 | $81,214 | $74,129 | ▼ 8.7% | 12.64% | 20.65% | ▲ 63.4% |
| Trailing average | – | – | ▼ 16.1% | – | – | ▲ 275.8% |
| Trailing median | – | – | ▼ 19.3% | – | – | ▲ 81.3% |
Sales variance is tightening: the trailing three months read -21.0%, then -8.7% against plan, versus the -68% structural miss in January. June's 8.7% miss came almost entirely from the four SKUs that ran out of FBA cover in the back half of the month.
Note on sources: this table uses the Proforma's manually entered actuals for consistency with the Expected columns. June's SellerBoard-reconciled actual is $77,898, which would read -4.1% against plan; the Proforma entry runs about 5% conservative.
Ten of twelve SKU groups were profitable in June. The surprise outperformers were Solar Landscape Lights at +80% versus plan and the E12 flame bulbs at +26% before selling out at FBA. The Bluetooth Speaker family combined for $3,573 at healthy margins, with Bronze running 30%.
The two loss-makers are known quantities: Solar String Lights sat at breakeven on halved plan volume, and Schoolhouse Lanterns lost $834 on 61 units; both enter the low-seller revenue program in July rather than getting more ad budget.
| SKU | Product | Total Pipeline (days) | FBA Cover (status) | Restock Urgency | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFCLB1_4pk | Flame Bulbs E12 4pk (B0GS5N1RMH) | 648 | 0 days | Receive Now | FBA out of stock; 300 units inbound; fastest-growing bulb line |
| FFMDL2 | Metal Outdoor Solar Lantern (B0D4PJ7BTD) | 567 | 4.2 days | Receive Now | 80 units inbound; confirm check-in this week |
| FFBT1_1PK | BT Speaker Black (B0FC88SR1Z) | 329 | 9.5 days | Expedite | 450 units inbound against 5.7 u/day velocity |
| FFMST4 | Metal Solar Torch 4pk (B0D4P21Z9N) | 324 | 9.9 days | Expedite | 147 units inbound; hero family child |
| FFPST2B_4pk | Landscape Lights 4pk (B0FC8CJQ6J) | 360 | 28.6 days | Watch | 96 inbound; outperformer, protect the ramp |
| FFMLB1_4PK | Medium Flame Bulbs 4pk (B0FC8TDNKK) | 187 | 28.0 days | Watch | 160 inbound |
Every at-risk SKU already has replenishment in transit, so July's only genuine inventory job is receive execution: the four red rows either check in on schedule or the account gives back part of the growth streak. The remaining six SKU groups all sit above 30 days of FBA cover, three of them overstocked past 90 days.
| Product Group | Jun Reviews | May Reviews | Δ | Jun Rating | May Rating | Jun BSR | May BSR | BSR Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Solar Lantern | 117 | 112 | +5 | 3.9 ★ | 3.8 ★ | 93K | 106K | ▲ improving |
| Solar Torch | 108 | 103 | +5 | 4.4 ★ | 4.3 ★ | 34K | 33K | ▬ steady |
| Bluetooth Flame Speaker | 75 | 57 | +18 | 4.4 ★ | 4.2 ★ | 596 | 918 | ▲ strong |
| Medium Flame Bulb | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.4 ★ | 4.5 ★ | 15K | 20K | ▲ improving |
| Lanterns | 38 | 68 | -30 | 4.0 ★ | 4.2 ★ | 71K | 4K | ▼ split effect |
| Solar String Lights | 44 | 41 | +3 | 4.4 ★ | 4.5 ★ | 180K | 189K | ▬ steady |
Bluetooth Speakers are the standout: +18 reviews, rating up to 4.4, and BSR improving from 918 to 596. The Lanterns row is a structural artifact, not organic decline: the old lantern listing was split out of the parent in June, taking its review pool and rank history with it, which explains the review drop and the BSR reset; the 4.0 rating on the remaining listing is the number to rebuild. Solar Torch and Metal Solar Lantern keep their steady climb, and Medium Flame Bulbs added 6 reviews with a 0.1 rating slip worth watching as volume scales.
Four SKUs sit in the red on FBA cover with stock already in transit: E12 bulbs (out of stock, 300 inbound), FFMDL2 lantern (4.2 days), BT Speaker Black (9.5 days, 450 inbound), and the 4-pack torches (9.9 days). Track check-in dates weekly and expedite anything slipping past its cover window.
Refund rate rose a second month to 7.2%, concentrated in the Outdoor Solar Lantern family (15.7%) and Schoolhouse variants (25%). Pull return reasons per ASIN and fix the top driver; findings reported in the July review.
June proved the account grows at 16.66% ACoS and 8.66% TACoS. As restocked SKUs come back live, fund the proven low-ACoS lanes first: Landscape Lights at 9% and the torch portfolios at 8%.
The SKU burned $1,284 in June at 121.6% ACoS for a -$1,065 product loss. Rebuild targeting around the sibling 2PK's proven terms or route traffic to the family hub; no added budget as-is.
Multiple new products are confirmed with Chris for the next 60 days. Listings, imagery, and launch PPC structures prepared in July go live against the August stock arrivals, so each launch lands with inventory rather than after it.
Schoolhouse Lanterns, String Lights, and Path Torch Elite sell below potential. Per-SKU listing and pricing review, prioritized by margin headroom, with winners folded into the ad structure once conversion proves.
The Proforma steps expected sales to $93.3K in August and $97.8K in September. With full stock and the new products contributing, the account targets the plan line at a 20% actual margin, which it has beaten for seven straight months.
The efficiency base is set: hold blended ACoS in the mid-teens as absolute spend grows, and keep the fixed-fee-adjusted margin near the 18.5% June report level or better as volume steps up.
June's manually entered Proforma actuals ran about 5% conservative versus SellerBoard. A monthly 10-minute sync of the actuals row keeps plan-vs-actual tracking honest as ArchWorks leans on this deck for capital decisions.