Forward-looking performance and forecast view, sourced from the Amazon Proforma. Aligned with the FoxFlame May 2026 Monthly Report. Prepared for ArchWorks Capital and the FoxFlame brand team.
May closed at $69,565 sales, 19.4% under the Proforma plan but a 63% step up from April and the strongest revenue and profit month of 2026. The June forecast of $83,868 represents a further 20% increase over May; achieving it requires the engine ASIN (Solar Torch Metal at 28% margin) to continue scaling and the two open FBA receive items (B0FC8DV484 Medium Flame Bulbs and B0D4PJ7BTD Metal Solar Lantern) to land on time. The forecast has been under-hit on average across the trailing 7 months (median -7.3%), with the structural January 2026 miss now well behind the catalog as supply normalized through Q2.
Treat the May number as an inventory and PPC execution anchor, not a guarantee. Q2 expected sales of $270K assumes the FBA receive completes in the first half of May and PPC scales steadily through June and July.
| Month | Expected Sales | Actual Sales | Variance | Expected Margin | Actual Margin | Margin Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | $54,463 | $53,012 | ▼ 2.7% | -7.10% | -4.37% | ▲ 38.4% |
| November 2025 | $47,986 | $46,845 | ▼ 2.4% | -2.64% | -0.09% | ▲ 96.6% |
| December 2025 | $51,179 | $41,325 | ▼ 19.3% | 5.17% | 9.89% | ▲ 91.5% |
| January 2026 | $52,310 | $16,792 | ▼ 67.9% | 4.77% | 8.13% | ▲ 70.2% |
| February 2026 | $20,655 | $16,111 | ▼ 22.0% | 7.84% | 14.21% | ▲ 81.3% |
| March 2026 | $18,420 | $24,539 | ▲ 33.2% | 10.05% | 14.50% | ▲ 44.3% |
| April 2026 | $45,830 | $42,495 | ▼ 7.3% | 2.40% | 16.28% | ▲ 578.9% |
| May 2026 | $86,268 | $69,565 | ▼ 19.4% | 2.17% | 17.90% | ▲ 725% |
| Trailing median | – | – | ▼ 7.3% | – | – | ▲ 81.3% |
| Trailing average | – | – | ▼ 13.5% | 2.84% | 9.55% | ▲ 236% |
Sales variance remains wide on the topline. The January 2026 -68% miss reflects the inventory event that took the catalog supply-gated through Q1; that single month still dominates the trailing average. Excluding it, the forecast has been within ±25% in 7 of 8 months, with March 2026 the only material upside surprise (+33%). May 2026 closed at $69,565 actual vs $86,268 expected, a -19.4% miss that reflects continued supply pacing through the FBA receive completion in mid-May rather than demand weakness.
Margin tells a cleaner story than sales. Actual margins have outperformed expected in every single month since November 2025, with May 2026 at 17.9% the second-highest read of the trailing period (just behind November 2025 conditions). The gap between Proforma-expected and actual margin has now compounded across 8 months; the Proforma is being run with conservative margin assumptions and the catalog is more profitable than the model predicts. A recalibration cycle on the expected-margin curves would materially improve forecasting accuracy ahead of Q3.
May net profit is concentrated in the top 4 SKUs: Solar Torch Metal ($6,494, 28.1% margin), Solar Dock Lantern ($2,366, 25.9%), BT Speaker Black ($1,245, 29.3%), and Medium Flame Bulb ($640, 16.7%) together delivered $10,745 of catalog NP. Solar Torch Metal is now unambiguously the brand engine: 700 units sold (+87% MoM), $6,494 net profit, 28.1% margin, +16.7% vs plan. This is the strongest single SKU result the catalog has posted in the trailing period. Solar Dock Lantern continued clean sellthrough at 26% margin pending its replacement SKU.
BT Speaker Bronze recovered from April -1.5% margin to +12.2% in May (PPC discipline restored). E12 LED Bulbs (FFCLB1) opened with its first real month of sales at 184 units and 25% margin, despite two open Restricted Product Policy Violations on related pack-size variants currently in Amazon appeal (no business impact). The watch items in May are Modern Flame Lantern (FFPFL1) at -0.4% margin on volume above plan (PPC mix pulled margin negative) and Solar String Light (FFSSL1) at -68% vs plan and 6.3% margin (velocity deteriorated MoM, worth diagnosing). Otherwise the per-SKU view confirms what the brand-wide numbers show: catalog margin and profitability expanded sharply, with the engine SKU carrying disproportionate weight.
| SKU | Product | Total Pipeline (days) | FBA Cover (status) | Restock Urgency | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFMDL2 | Metal Outdoor Solar Lantern (B0D4PJ7BTD) | 632 | 9.7 days | Order Now | Zero inbound; replenishment order required before mid-June |
| FFMLB1 | Medium Flame Light Bulbs (B0FC8DV484) | 206 | 8.4 days | Restock Priority | 192 units inbound; receive timing critical |
| FFBT1B | Bluetooth Outdoor Speakers, LED Flame (B0FC7NG9LG) | 223 | 19.3 days | Tight w/ inbound | 218 inbound covers gap if receive holds |
| FFMLB1B | Medium Flame Light Bulbs variant (B0FC8B47CH) | 206 | 21.3 days | Tight w/ inbound | 256 inbound; on track |
| FFMST1 | Solar Torch (Metal) | 462 | Not flagged | OK | Brand engine, healthy pipeline |
| FFCLB1 | E12 LED Bulbs | 570 | Not flagged | OK | First full sales month at 184 units |
| FFMDL1 | Solar Dock Lantern | 632 | Not flagged | OK | In sellthrough, replacement SKU pending |
| FFSHL1 | Schoolhouse Lantern | 323 | Not flagged | OK | |
| FFPFL1 | Modern Flame Lantern | 356 | Not flagged | OK | |
| FFPST2B | Solar Rustic Torch | 303 | Not flagged | OK | |
| FFSSL1 | Solar Flame String Light | 415 | Not flagged | OK | |
| FFBT1 | BT Speaker, Black | 260 | Not flagged | OK | Healthy with 29% margin |
Pipeline depth remains healthy across the catalog with most SKUs at 200 to 600+ days of total inventory cover. The May Monthly Report flagged 4 ASINs at sub-30-day FBA-only cover; the gap is between warehouse-on-hand and FBA-on-hand for two of them, while the other two (B0D4PJ7BTD Metal Outdoor Solar Lantern and B0FC8DV484 Medium Flame Light Bulbs) have either zero inbound or tight receive timing and need explicit action.
The two June urgency items are the Metal Outdoor Solar Lantern replenishment order (zero inbound, 9.7 days cover, $5,279 in May sales at 30% margin) and the Medium Flame Light Bulbs FBA receive (192 inbound but 8.4 days cover means timing matters). Lead times with buffer are 120 days for most SKUs and 150 for FFMST1; reorder decisions for SKUs hitting threshold in Sep-Oct need to land in June-July regardless of current pipeline depth. The catalog has now exited the supply-gated state that constrained Q1 PPC, which is why May achieved $69,565 in revenue at 17.9% margin.
| Product Group | May Reviews | Apr Reviews | Δ | May Rating | Apr Rating | May BSR | Apr BSR | BSR Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Solar Lantern | 112 | 110 | +2 | 3.8 ★ | 3.6 ★ | 106K | 73K | ▼ slipped |
| Solar Torch | 103 | 96 | +7 | 4.3 ★ | 4.2 ★ | 33K | 39K | ▲ improved |
| Bluetooth Flame Speaker | 57 | 53 | +4 | 4.2 ★ | 4.0 ★ | 918 | 865 | ▼ slight drift |
| Medium Flame Bulb | 62 | 61 | +1 | 4.5 ★ | 4.5 ★ | 20K | 58K | ▲ improved |
| Lanterns (Solar) | 68 | 65 | +3 | 4.2 ★ | 4.3 ★ | 4K | 56K | ▲ strong |
| Solar String Lights | 41 | 39 | +2 | 4.5 ★ | 4.4 ★ | 189K | 121K | ▼ slipped |
Review velocity remains healthy and steady; every product group picked up reviews in May, with Solar Torch leading at +7 reviews. Star ratings ticked up across most groups: Metal Solar Lantern recovered from 3.6 to 3.8 stars (the expected pattern for the discontinued SKU is to slip during sellthrough; this monthly tick up is positive), and Bluetooth Flame Speaker climbed from 4.0 to 4.2. Lanterns dipped slightly from 4.3 to 4.2 but the BSR improvement (56K to 4K) means category placement strengthened. BSR rankings are mixed in May: Solar Torch, Medium Flame Bulb, and Lanterns each saw material BSR improvement (lower number = better rank), while Metal Solar Lantern (73K to 106K) and Solar String Lights (121K to 189K) slipped, likely because new competitor entries or seasonal category shifts. Worth investigating in June whether the BSR slip on those two correlates with measurable sales pressure.
FFMDL2-FBA sits at 31 units, 9.7 days of cover, zero inbound, 3.20 units per day velocity. The ASIN delivered $5,279 in May at 30% net margin and will stock out in the first half of June without action. Place replenishment order now and confirm transit timing.
32 units stock + 192 inbound at 3.79 units per day puts days of cover at 8.4. Inbound covers the gap only if receive timing holds. Confirm LTL ETA, expedite to FBA if possible, and cap PPC spend on this SKU until receive completes.
B0G35S6HPP drew 9,831 sessions (highest in catalog) at 99.86% Buy Box but converted to only $10,027 sales and 2.7% margin. Session-to-sales ratio is half what the Solar Torch engine produces. Per-page diagnostic in June: pricing vs competitor reference, listing main image + bullets refresh, PPC keyword targeting alignment.
Solar Torch Metal at 28.1% margin and BT Speaker Black at 29.3% are the most efficient PPC scale candidates. Lift daily budgets while ACoS stays under 25%. May spend already grew 86% MoM with ACoS improving, confirming the efficiency-at-scale pattern holds.
Refund count rose from 30 to 97 in May (+223%). Likely concentrated in the newer Bluetooth Speaker variants given their launch volume. Per-ASIN refund decomposition in July will confirm whether the spike is concentrated (addressable via listing/fulfillment fixes) or broad-based (acceptable structural mix shift).
FFMDL1 continued clean sellthrough in May at 26% margin ($2,366 NP on 287 units). Replacement SKU pending stock arrival. July work: confirm inbound landed, prep listing assets, plan the merchandising handoff so category position transitions without a revenue gap.
8-month trailing margin variance is now +236%, with actuals running 5 to 16 points above expected every month since November 2025. The catalog is structurally more profitable than the model assumes. After June actuals land, refit expected-margin curves upward by ~6 points and the expected-sales bands tighter to ±15%. This improves Q3 forecasting accuracy materially.
May was first real month at 184 units and 25% margin. August deck will have three full months of actuals against Proforma's 300-units-per-month assumption. If three-month rolling average lands within ±15%, the listing graduates to scale candidate. Two open Restricted Product Policy Violations on related variants remain in Amazon appeal with zero business impact.
Lead time with buffer is 120 to 150 days. Reorder decisions for SKUs hitting threshold in October to November need to land in June to July. Solar Torch (engine, 462 days pipeline) and BT Speaker Black (260 days) are the priority planning items for the September-October ordering cycle.